I te tata mai o te Hakari o te Koanga, kua tata ngā tohunga hokohoko o tāwāhi ki te tomo ki tētahi matapihi ā-tau nui — teHe tīmatanga pakari mō te hauwhā tuatahi o te tau 2026Ko te tīmatanga anō o ngā mahi i muri i te hararei, te whakakī anō i ngā taonga o tāwāhi, te whakarewatanga o ngā hua hou o te puna hokohoko ipurangi whakawhiti-rohe, me ngā ngaru hokohoko kua whakawhāitihia ki ngā mākete putaiao, me te hanganga anō o te mekameka tuku o te ao, te pikinga ake o te tono mō te AI me te pūngao hou, me ngā huringa hanganga i roto i ngā huarahi kaipuke me ngā utu utanga —Mā te whiriwhiri i ngā kāwai hua tika, te whakarite i te wā tika mō ō nekehanga, me te whakarite i te wāhi utanga i mua i te wā ka whakatakoto tika i te āhua o te mahi o te tau..
I. Te Whenua Tauhokohoko o Tāwāhi mō te Hauwhā Tuatahi o te tau 2026: Te Ahunga Whakamua me ngā Whakapai Ake Hanganga
•Te Tipu Whānui: E matapaetia ana e Goldman Sachs ka eke te tipu kaweake o Haina (e pā ana ki te USD) ki te 5.6% i te tau 2026, me te pupuri tonu i te tipu o te rahinga kaweake neke atu i te 5%, e whakaatu ana i te manawanui nui.
•Arotahi Hanganga: Ko te hanga taputapu, ko ngā ahumahi hangarau teitei, ko te pūngao hou, me te hokohoko ipurangi whakawhiti-rohe kei te arahi tonu; ko te tipu o te kaweake o ngā taonga waenga me ngā taonga whakapaipai he nui ake i te tipu o ngā taonga kaihoko.
•Te Āhua o te Mākete: Ko te ASEAN tuatahi, ko te Waenganui Rawhiti / Rūhia / Āwherika te tipu nui, ko Ūropi me te US e whakaatu ana i te whakaoranga pumau.
•Ngā Raraunga Matua: I te tau 2025, i eke te uara kaweake katoa o Haina ki te RMB 26.99 trillion, he pikinga tau-ki-te-tau o te 6.1%; i eke te kaweake o ngā taputapu hanga ki te RMB 16.03 trillion, he pikinga 9.2%, e 59.4% o ngā kaweake katoa.
•Ngā Āhuatanga Whakahaere: He iti te kaha tuku i mua i te hararei, ka tere te ora anō i muri mai; he rerekētanga i ngā huarahi o Āhia-Ūropi/Metiterāne, he pumau ngā wā whakawhiti ki te Tonga-Rawhiti o Āhia/Waenganui Rawhiti.
II. Ngā Kāwai Matua o te Hauwhā Tuatahi o te tau 2026 mō te Tīmatanga Kaha
1. Ngā "Tokotoru Hou": Te Pūkaha Matua mō te Tau, Te Tipu Nui Tonu i te Hauwhā Tuatahi
Ko ngā waka hiko (EV), ngā pākahiko lithium, me ngā wāhanga photovoltaic (PV) tonu ngā mea tino kaha ki te whakatipu i ngā kaweake. Ko te whakakī anō i ngā whenua ki tāwāhi i muri i ngā hararei, me te nui o te tono mō ngā kaupapa here me ngā hanganga.
Raraunga Matua:
• Kua tata te tauine kaweake katoa o ngā "Toru Hou" i te tau 2025RMB 1.3 tiriona, heTe pikinga 3.5-ngā wā i roto i ngā tau 5, ki runga27.1%tau-ki-te-tau.
•Ngā Waka Pūngao HouKua tae ki ngā kaweake2.315 miriona ngā waeinei ngā marama 11 tuatahi o te tau 2025,+102.9%tau-ki-te-tau; utu toharite mō ia waeUSD 20,000–30,000; te uara kaweake kotahi-marama o Hakihea+71.7%tau-ki-te-tau.
•Ngā Pūhiko Ritiumu: uara kaweake 2025RMB 570.86 piriona,+24.4%tau-ki-te-tau; ngā kaweake o Hanuere–Hepetema55.38 piriona tāra tāra,+26.8%tau-ki-te-tau.
•Ngā pūngao whakaahua: Kua hipa ake ngā kaweakeRMB 200 pirionamō ngā tau e whā karapīpiti; i te hauwhā tuatahi, i whakakīia te hiahia ki ngā teihana hiko o tāwāhi.
Ngā Mākete MatuaASEAN, Te Rawhiti o Waenganui, Rūhia, Āwherika ki te Raki, Amerika ki te Tonga
Ngā Kaupapa Matua o te Whakahaere Rautaki:
•Ngā waka Ro-Ro / whata papatahi, whakapuakitanga taonga kino, raihana kaweake, whakawātea tikanga tuku iho
•Ngā Pūhiko RitiumuUN38.3, tiwhikete taonga kino, tākai iti te rahinga, kaupapa matua mō te wāhi raina motuhake
•Ngā pūngao whakaahuaKo te kawenga ipu katoa te mea nui, kia aro ki te matapihi whakatikatika hanganga mō ngā reiti whakahoki VAT
Matapae o te Hauwhā Tuatahi: Kei te mau tonu te tipu o ia tau ki25%–40%; e tohu ana te wāhi kikī o te ipute whakarite wāhi i mua i te hararei.
2. Hikohiko me te ICT: Te Whakaaratanga Kaha o te Pūnaha Ārai-Haumaru e Aratakihia ana e te AI (Te Tipu Nui Mārama)
E ārahihia ana e ngā tūmau AI, ngā pokapū raraunga, me te whakakī anō i ngā rawa hikohiko kaihoko,ngā ara iahiko whakauru, ngā rorohiko, ngā taputapu whakawhitiwhiti kōrero, me ngā papa whakaatukei te pāngia rātou e te kaha o te hokinga whakamuri.
Raraunga Matua:
• Te uara kaweake o te ara iahiko whakauru o Hakihea 2025+47.7%tau-ki-te-tau,te hipa i ngā waea pūkoro hei hua kaweake kotahi nui rawa atu.
• Kua eke ki ngā reiti tipu kotahi-marama mō ngā rorohiko me ngā taputapu whakawhitiwhiti kōrero ahokore89.2%me66.9%ia; kaweake waea pūkoro+41.2%.
• Kua piki ake ngā kawemai taputapu e pā ana ki te AI i te US48.3%–89.2%, e akiaki ana i te tipu nui o ngā kaweake ICT a Haina.
Ngā Mākete Matua: USA, Ūropi, Āhia ki te Tonga-mā-rāwhiti, Hapani, Kōrea ki te Tonga
Ngā Kaupapa Matua o te Whakahaere RautakiKo ngā utanga utu nui e pai ake ana ki te utanga rererangi/ngā kaipuke tere, te whakahaere pāmahana me te makuku, te aroturuki katoa, me te iti o te taurangi pakaru.
Matapae o te Hauwhā TuatahiTe wā tino nui mō ngā tuku hikohiko; ka piki haere ngā utu utanga rererangi i ia wā, i ia wā i te Hui-tanguru–Maehe; te tere tipu30%+.
3. Mīhini me te Hanga kaipuke: He nui ngā ota kua whakaroahia, he tino pakari ngā kaweake
Ngā mīhini whānui, ngā motuka, ngā taputapu kāinga, me te hanga kaipukewhai hua mai i te whakaoranga ahumahi o te ao me te tipu nui o ngā ota kua whakaroahia, me te arotahi o ngā tukunga i te hauwhā tuatahi.
Raraunga Matua:
• Kua eke te kaweake o ngā hua miihini me ngā hua hiko ki te tau 2025RMB 12.07 tiriona, ki runga9.6%, te whakahaere i te kaute mō60.5%o ngā kaweake katoa.
• Ngā taonga whakapaipai pērā ingā kaipuke, ngā whakaputa hiko, ngā papu, ngā kōpeketangai takoha i te 0.4–1 ōrau ki te tipu katoa o ngā kaweake.
Ngā Kāwai MatuaNgā papu, ngā mīhini whakapūngao, ngā mīhini whakaputa hiko, ngā hauhautanga o te whare, ngā mīhini horoi, ngā pouaka whakamātao arumoni, ngā kaipuke ipu/ngā tāke
Ngā Mākete MatuaASEAN, Te Rawhiti o Waenganui, Āwherika, Amerika ki te Tonga, Ūropi
Ngā Kaupapa Matua o te Whakahaere RautakiWhakakaha mō ngā utanga nui, ngā whata papatahi/ngā tuanui tuwhera, te whakawātea tikanga whakauru me te kawe taraka.
Matapae o te Hauwhā TuatahiTe tino pono, he maha ngā kirimana roa; te tere tipu8%–12%, e tika ana mō te whakamahere wāhi mō te wā roa.
4. Ngā Mea Matua mō te Tauhokohoko Ipurangi Whakawhiti-Rohe: Ngā Whakarewatanga Hua Hou o te Koanga + Te Whakamahinga Hararei, Te Tipu Nui o Ngā Ota Iti, Tere-Hurihuri
Ngā whakarewatanga hua hou o te kōanga ki tāwāhi, te wā hoki ki te kura, te whakahoutanga o te kāinga, me ngā mahi o waho, me te tipu nui o te hokohoko ipurangi i te Tonga-mā-rāwhiti o Āhia, Rūhia, me te Waenganui Rawhiti —ngā taonga iti māmā, ngā taonga hokohoko tere haere, ngā hua kāinga, me ngā taputapu itikei te kite tonu i te pikinga nui o ngā ota.
Raraunga Matua:
• E matapaetia ana ka eke te tauine kaweake hokohoko ipurangi whakawhiti-rohe o Haina kiRMB 3.2 tirionai te tau 2026, e whai whakaaro ana ki28%o te tapeke o ngā kaweake hokohoko ki tāwāhi.
• Ka hipa ake te mākete hokohoko ipurangi o Āhia ki te Tonga-mā-rāwhiti150 piriona tāra tārai te tau 2026, me te tipu ā-tau o15%Te tipu o te hokohoko ipurangi o Initonīhia22%, Īnia17.6%.
• Tata ki te70%, me te tipu nui ake i te B2C; te rahinga utanga o te hauwhā tuatahi+30%+marama-ki-te-marama.
Ngā Kāwai MatuaNgā mea e hiahiatia ana e te whare o ia rā, ngā taonga rokiroki, ngā taputapu iti, ngā taputapu kīhini, ngā mahi whakangahau o waho, ngā taputapu hākinakina, ngā kākahu o te kōanga, ngā taonga mōkai, ngā taputapu 3C
Ngā Mākete MatuaĀhia ki te Tonga-mā-rāwhiti (Toa TikTok), Rūhia, Rawhiti-waenganui, hokohoko ipurangi ā-rohe
Ngā Kaupapa Matua o te Whakahaere RautakiTe whare putunga o tāwāhi mō te penapena, ngā mōkihi iti motuhake, te ratonga DDP, ngā wā whakawhiti pumau, te iti o te ngaronga whakahoki.
Matapae o te Hauwhā TuatahiTe nui o ngā utanga hokohoko ipurangi+30%+ia marama; kei te piki haere ngā utu mō ngā tau whakamutunga.
5. Ngā Taonga Matua mō te Takurua me ngā Taonga Hokohoko Tere: Rūhia / Te Rawhiti o Waenganui / Ūropi Matapihi Whakakī
Ko Hānuere–Maehe tonu te wā whakamahana i te Ao Raki. Ko te hiahia mōngā taputapu whakamahana, ngā kakahu mahana o te kāinga, ngā kākahu matotoru, me ngā taputapu itikei te kaha tonu i Rūhia, i Ūropi ki te Rawhiti, me Āhia Waenganui.
Raraunga Matua:
• Kua hipa te tipu o ngā kaweake ki Rūhia me Āhia Waenganui15%+mō ngā hauwhā maha karapīpiti; he nui te hiahia mō ngā taputapu whakamahana, ngā paraikete hiko, me ngā koti huruhuru hipi.
• Te tipu o ngā kaweake ki ASEAN i te tau 202511.1%, Amerika Latina9.8%Āwherika13.7%; te kaha o te manawanui o ngā taonga kaihoko i ngā mākete putaiao.
Ngā Kāwai MatuaNgā whakamahana hiko, ngā paraikete hiko, ngā koti huruhuru hipi, ngā paraikete, ngā taputapu iti paerewa Pākehā
Ngā Whakaritenga MatuaNgā tiwhikete katoa (CE/EAC/GOST), te urutaunga ngaohiko, te takai e tutuki ana i ngā whakaritenga
Ngā Kaupapa Matua o te Whakahaere RautakiNgā tereina Haina-Rūhia, ngā ara tere utanga rererangi, ngā wā whakawhiti tauranga whenua pumau.
Matapae o te Hauwhā TuatahiWhakakīia anō i roto i te kotahi marama i muri i te hararei; mōrearea te whakakorenga o ngā taonga kāore he tiwhikete tika.
6. Ngā Hua Ahuwhenua me ngā Kai Kua Takahia: Mō te Hauora, te Wātea, te Tipu Nui i roto i te ASEAN / Amerika Te Raki
Ngā kai kua oti te taka, ngā pūmua tipu, ngā hua wai, te tī, me ngā hua ahuwhenua motuhakewhai hua mai i ngā au kai hauora me te hiahia o ngā kaihoko Hainamana o tāwāhi. Ko ngā paepae matua o te mekameka makariri me te tutuki i ngā whakaritenga.
Raraunga Matua:
• Ka mau tonu te tipu o ngā kaweake hua ahuwhenua5%–8%; te tono mō ngā ipu mekameka makariri+12%tau-ki-te-tau.
• E matapaetia ana ka tata te mākete mōkai o te ao500 piriona tāra tārai te tau 2026, me te tipu ā-tau o6%–8%; ka tipu anō te kaweake o ngā hua mōkai i te wā kotahi.
Ngā Kāwai MatuaNgā hua soya, ngā hua wai, ngā rihi kua takaia, te tī, ngā nati, ngā mea kakara
Ngā Mākete MatuaASEAN, USA, Kānata, Ahitereiria, Ūropi
Ngā Kaupapa Matua o te Whakahaere RautakiNgā ipu mekameka makariri, te whai i te mana whakahaere pāmahana, te tirotiro taonga me te tuku tikanga, te tutuki i ngā tapanga.
Matapae o te Hauwhā TuatahiTe tipu pumau, ngā reiti hoko anō teitei, he pai mō te tuku pumau mō te wā roa.
III. Ngā Mākete Matua me ngā Huarahi Matua o te Hauwhā Tuatahi o te tau 2026
1. ASEAN (Hoa Hokohoko Nui rawa atu)
• Te tere tipu matapae o9.4%i te tau 2026.
• He tere te kawe waka, he iti te utu, he pumau te rahinga utanga.
• Ngā tukunga kukū ongā taonga kāinga, 3C, mīhini, taonga hokohoko ipurangi.
Ngā Painga:Tereina Moana Tereina, Kawe Whenua Maha-Modal.
2. Rūhia me Āhia Waenganui
• Te pikinga ake o te tono mōwhakamahana, taputapu hiko, taonga hokohoko tere haere.
• Te tere tipu15%+.
• Te nuingatereina, utanga rererangi, kawe whenua.
• Kaupapa Matua: Te Whakatutukitanga me te Tiwhikete.
3. Te Rawhiti o Waenganui
• Te nui o te hiahia mōpūngao hou, hanganga, taputapu hiko, hikohiko.
• Te tere tipu10%–15%.
•Utauta moana tika + whare putunga ki tāwāhimō te whakataetae nui ake.
4. Ūropi (Ngā Huarahi o te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa / Āhia-Ūropi)
• Ka piki ake ngā kaweake ki Ūropi8.1%i ngā marama 11 tuatahi o te tau 2025; ka haere tonu te whakaoranga i te tau 2026.
• Ngā kāwai matua:Pūngao hou, hikohiko, mīhini.
• Kia tūpato ki ngā rerekētanga o te huarahi me ngā utu tāpiri;pukapuka wāhi mō te wā poto.
5. Āwherika me Amerika Latina
• Te tipu nui ongā motuka, ngā mīhini, ngā taputapu, ngā rauemi hanga whare.
• Te tipu o Āwherika13.7%, Amerika Latina9.8%.
• Te nuingaFCL, whakawātea tikanga matatini.
• Tūtohungā otinga whakahaere kotahi-mutu.
6. Te Hononga o Amerika
• Te whakaoranga taha engari kei raro i te pēhanga te hanganga.
• Te tere tipu e matapaetia ana mō-5%i te tau 2026.
• Arotahi kihua tāpiri uara nui, e aro ana ki ngā ture.
• Te kaupapa matua mō te whakahaere ratonga:Ngā kaipuke tere, te whakahaere pāmahana, te kaha ki te whai i ngā mea e hiahiatia ana.
IV. Ngā Whakamaumahara Matua mō te Tauhokohoko me te Tukunga o te Hauwhā Tuatahi o te tau 2026 (He mea nui mō ngā Tohunga Tauhokohoko ki tāwāhi)
1. Te Rīpene Hararei o te Hakari o te Koanga
• Ka kati ngā wheketere i waenganui o Pēpuere, ka tīmata anō i te mutunga o Pēpuere.
• Ngā raina kaipuke, ngā tauranga, me ngā mahi a te tari tāke.
•Ko te haurua tuatahi o Pēpuere te matapihi tuku whakamutunga.
2. Wāhi me te Utu
• I mua i te hararei: He kuiti te wāhi i ngā huarahi o Āhia ki te Tonga-mā-rāwhiti me te Rawhiti-waenganui.
• Whai muri i te hararei: Ka ora katoa i te marama o Poutū-te-rangi.
•Whakaritea te wāhi mō ngā mea hou e toru / ngā mea hiko utu nui.
3. Ngā Rārangi Whero Whakatutukitanga
•Pūhiko Ritiumu / NEVTe takai taonga morearea, te nama UN, te whakapuakitanga pumau — karohia te pupuri i ngā ipu me ngā whiu.
•Ngā Taonga Hokohoko IpurangiArotake i mua i ngā tohu hokohoko, takahi ture, tiwhikete, whakaritenga tikanga tuku iho.
4. Rautaki Whakapūmau
•Ngā kāwai hurihanga teiteiWhakakīia ngā whare putunga o tāwāhi i mua i te hararei, tuku tika i muri i te hararei.
•Utaina papatipu / Kirimana wā roaWāhi pukapuka10–15 ngā rā i mua, karohia te noho pukumahi i te rā tuatahi ki te mahi.
V. Whakarāpopototanga: Tīmatanga Kaha o te tau 2026 — Arotahi ki ngā Rārangi Matua e 3
1. Whāia ngā Rāngai Tipu-Tiketike: New Three, Hikohiko ICT, Mīhini me te Hanga kaipuke (Te Tino Pūmau)
2. Whāia ngā Mākete PūkengaASEAN, Rūhia, Te Rawhiti o Waenganui, Āwherika (Te tipu tere rawa)
3. Hopukia ngā Painga o te Ratonga WhakahaereWhakapūmau i te wāhi i mua i te hararei, whakatairanga i te tutuki i ngā whakaritenga, whakatūria he whare putunga ki tāwāhi, whakahohea te tirohanga whānui
Kua tae mai te Tau o te Hōiho. Mā te whiriwhiri i ngā kāwai hua tika = kua toa te haurua o te pakanga. Mā te whiriwhiri i te hoa mahi tika = he haerenga kore manukanuka.
Te wā tuku: 28-Pepuere-2026